Australia’s resources and energy commodity export earnings are forecast to continue to grow over the medium term to reach a record $225 billion (in 2011–12 dollars) in 2016–17. The forecast was released today in the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics’ (BREE) Resources and Energy Quarterly—March quarter 2012.
The growth in resources and energy export earnings over the next five years is forecast to be underpinned by increases in export earnings for most commodities, including LNG, iron ore and thermal coal.
“Despite projections of lower commodity prices relative to 2010–11 over the medium term, increased resources and energy export earnings are projected to be underpinned by substantially greater export volumes for most commodities” said Professor Grafton, BREE’s Executive Director and Chief Economist , on releasing the report.
A large proportion of increases in export earnings are expected to come from LNG, with eight projects (including the almost complete Pluto project) under construction. Export volumes are forecast to increase from 20 million tonnes in 2011–12 to over 60 million tonnes in 2016–17, while export earnings for LNG are also forecast to treble over the same period to $30 billion.
“The growth in Australia’s LNG industry over the next five years is underpinned by over $175 billion worth of investment to expand capacity in Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory,” said Professor Grafton.
Between 2011–12 and 2016–17 export volumes are forecast to increase for iron ore (62 per cent), metallurgical coal (47 per cent), thermal coal (65 per cent), copper ores and concentrates (77 per cent) and alumina (29 per cent).
“The increase in Australia’s export volumes for most commodities reflects commitments by the industry to increase production and expand infrastructure capacity over the medium term,” said Professor Grafton.
[mappress] LNG World News Staff, March 21, 2012; Image: Woodside