NYC-based PIRA Energy Group reports that counter-seasonal gas demand around the world is heating up.
Counter seasonal gas demand is heating up, mainly in South America and the Mideast. Nowhere is potential incremental LNG import growth stronger than in Brazil, where a years-long drought has pushed up thermal demand for power generation significantly, PIRA said in its report.
In the U.S. arguably the producing region injection stands out the most from last week’s report. The 50 BCF build not only bested the previous April weekly record (38 BCF in 2010), but also marked the second largest build in any month. The region is now well on its way to challenging the record high April build set in 2010 when storage rose by 146 BCF.
The impetus behind the bullish story in Europe for the summer is fading. It should not be dismissed out of hand, but the worst case scenario of a supply withholding Russia, draconian Dutch cuts spearheaded by the judicial system, and stronger demand for LNG is Asia is not panning out at the moment. While the conflict in eastern Ukraine continues, the gas is flowing at higher and higher rates and even the government in Kiev is talking up better prices from Russia. PIRA believes the unquestionable decline in oil-indexed gas prices is coming.
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Image: Petrobras