With the reality that Brent oil prices are scratching closer and closer to $20 per barrel, shut-ins are already happening around the world. Even if prices reach this threshold, the UK will avoid shut-ins and exploration is likely to continue in 2020, although cash flow and project sanctioning will suffer, a Rystad Energy impact analysis shows.

If Brent drops to $20 per barrel, 30,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of production will fall short of covering short-run marginal costs, which puts these assets at risk of an early shut-in.