7% of the EU’s shipping fuels need to be green by 2030 for the sector to decarbonise by mid-century, a new study released by environmental NGO Transport & Environment (T&E) shows.
The study analyses technical, operational and fuel options that could help cut EU shipping emissions in line with the EU’s economy-wide targets.
Namely, the EU Green Deal requires all emissions regulated in the EU, including those from shipping, to be cut to net-zero by 2050.
T&E said it had built a tailor-made shipping stock model, which takes account of technology review and transport work demand from the 4th IMO GHG study, EU THETIS-MRV database and relevant literature review, in order to identify potential decarbonisation pathways for EU shipping.
The modelling points to a clear path that involves modest deployments of e-fuels combined with efficiency measures such as wind-assist and speed optimisation.
Three scenarios investigated the impact of different levels of energy efficiency improvements along with an ambitious but sustainable uptake of green e-fuels.
According to the findings of the analysis:
“If EU shipping is to play its part in rapidly cutting global emissions, it should act now. Only a combination of energy efficiency improvements and zero-emission vessels will get us there,” Faig Abbasov , shipping director at T&E, said.
“ Our analysis shows that even modest deployments this decade can put a sector resistant to change on the right track. The EU should mandate 7% electrofuel deployment by 2030 for all EU shipping as an ambitious but realistic way to fully decarbonise by 2050.”
Up to a third of emissions could be cut in 2050 through improved efficiency alone. But this will not be enough to decarbonise the sector, said T&E. If the industry is to cut emissions further it will need to transition to e-ammonia and e-hydrogen which are currently the cheapest green fuel options.
The study shows that around 4.6Mt e-ammonia, or 85 PJ, could be feasibly made available for shipping by 2030.
To produce such amounts of green ammonia, Europe would need to install about 14.6 GW of additional renewable electricity and about 7.5 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030.
Both e-ammonia and e-hydrogen reach up to 7% of the EU shipping fuel mix by 2030 which, the study shows, would give producers the kickstart they need to make enough of the fuels in the coming decades.
In order to consume the supply of e-ammonia, and to create the demand for it, shipping companies would need to start deploying zero-emission enabled vessels from 2025 onward.
The NGO said that it would take, for example, the equivalent of 120 of the largest container ships to consume that amount of e-ammonia (4.6 million tonnes). For comparison, the equivalent of at least 130 new natural gas-powered vessels of the same capacity will be deployed in the next three years alone.
Furthermore, the study estimates that combined energy efficiency and zero-carbon fuel deployments would also save industry up to €12 billion in costs in 2050 to fully decarbonise.
As a result, EU regulations driving both energy efficiency and green carbon-free fuels deployments would deliver 6 times more cost-effective carbon reduction in 2030 and about 2 times more cost-effective carbon reduction in 2050.
As such, the EU should mandate 7% e-fuels by 2030 as part of the forthcoming FuelEU maritime legislation, concludes T&E.