France-headquartered energy giant TotalEnergies has provided insight into the impact the ongoing conflict between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran is having on its activities, highlighting its expectations of being able to offset the loss caused by the production halt in the Middle East with higher oil prices.
The production that has been halted or is in the process of being shut down offshore Qatar, Iraq, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) represents approximately 15% of the French player’s total output.
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The company, which claims that the onshore UAE production of its 210 kb/d share is not affected by the conflict at this stage, underlines that the Middle East barrels’ CFFO is lower than the firm’s portfolio average due to higher taxation, with the 15% of its volumes accounting for approximately 10% of Upstream cash flow.
“Growth of our accretive barrels is expected to come overwhelmingly from outside the Middle East in 2026, meaning that a higher oil price more than offsets the loss of Middle East production: an $8/b increase in the Brent price is enough to offset the expected 2026 CFFO from our Iraq, UAE offshore and Qatar assets at $60/b,” emphasized TotalEnergies.
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The French giant also underscores that operations at the Satorp refinery are continuing normally for now and are supplying the Saudi domestic market.
The firm is convinced that the impact of LNG production shutdowns in Qatar on its LNG trading activities is limited, with around 2 metric tonnes expected in 2026, as most Qatari LNG is marketed by QatarEnergies.