Current subsea tree demand in 2021 could total up to 224 units, based on $50/bbl Brent, according to market research provider Westwood.
Based on assessment of subsurface, commercial & geopolitical factors, Westwood has classified 137 units as ‘firm’, 51 unit as ‘probable’ and 32 units as ‘possible’.
Major projects to watch in 1Q 2021 includes Equinor’s Bacalhau (Brazil), Petrobras’ Buzios 5 (Brazil) and Ithaca Energy’s Captain EOR project (UK).
To remind, two subsea tree units contracts landed in December 2020. This brought 2020 total subsea tree orders to close at 153 units, a 33 per cent decline year-on-year.
Furthermore, Westwood’s visible base-case subsea tree demand for the 2021-25 period is at 1,290 units, averaging approximately 260 units a year.
Specifically, 43 per cent of projected demand is in Latin America where major projects in Brazil’s pre-salt basin and in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana should dominate subsea tree demand in the forecast period.
Westwood subsea team provides this global update on subsea tree awards, with data sourced from, and also analysed using, the new SubseaLogix service.